Wednesday, 12 May 2010

  • Implied Odds

    I discussed the idea of pot odds in the previous post, and now I’d like to build on that concept and write about implied odds. Last entry showed that bankroll management is so critical when it comes to the game of poker because there will be times where you will have to put your money in even if you’ll lose a large percentage of the time. You’re bound to lose a few of these pots, and sometimes it’s impossible to get away from these situations despite using a correct poker hands order. When we discuss implied odds, there will be a similar theme: we’re almost always putting our money in behind. With pot odds we do it because it’s mathematically correct. With implied odds we do it because of future expectation.

    It’s easiest to explain what I mean with an example, so let’s re-visit the flush draw situation from last entry. If you recall, we were using a Full Tilt Poker download to play in a tournament and our opponent raised when we bet. However, in this example say that our opponent just raises 600 more rather than all his chips. Considering just pot odds, this 600 raise is too many chips because, as we saw last time, only raises less than 500 allow us to call. However, everything changes depending on how many chips are remaining in his stack if we know that there is no way he’s folding on later streets. In this example, let’s say he has 1,000 chips behind. To keep it simple, we will also assume that he will check back the turn 100% of the time. This sets up a situation in which it becomes correct to calculate implied odds rather than pot odds. Since we know that he’s going to either bet or call his remaining 1,000 chips on the river, you can consider that the pot is 2,000 rather than 1,000. 600 to call divided by 2,000 in the implied pot gives you 0.30, and since you’ll hit your flush around 33% of the time, the call is profitable here.

    You can see that a poker odds chart, pot odds, and implied odds can give you a huge edge at the table. An inexperienced individual has a lot of potential to lose money at the wrong time with his draws. For example, he might call an all-in without correct pot odds, and we’ve seen that this yields a negative expectation. Or maybe he knows about pot odds but doesn’t understand implied odds, so in another situation he’ll fold when he actually has the implied odds to call. MTT poker and cash games alike require you to utilize both pot odds and implied odds to make as much money as possible when you have draws.

    I’ll finish with a word of caution. Occasionally those new to the game will think that it’s okay to call in all situations when they are taught implied odds because they assume that the odds are always there. You must be sure that your opponent will pay you off when you’re considering his chips in implied odds calculations. Let’s say you’re getting dealt poker hands in a live brick-and-mortar game and you turn a set, but it appears it gave your opponent a flush at the same time. When he raises your bet, you realize that you’re going to have to hit a full house on the river in order to win, so you start calculating your implied odds. Some players won’t go all the way with a flush on a paired board, and you must consider this when you’re calculating your implied odds. If you are overly optimistic and you think that he’s going to call a bet when he actually won’t, you won’t have the correct odds to call after all, and you’ll be in a losing situation.

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